Indonesia Power Report Q3 2008

[ pr-inside ]

The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.08% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2012, with an increasing generation shortfall that provides a growing import requirement. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation estimate for 2007 is 6,865 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 9.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,370twh by 2012, representing a rise of 36.5%. Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2007 is estimated by BMI at 5,431twh, accounting for 79.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region.

Our forecast for 2012 is 7,104twh, implying 46.6% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 75.8% – thanks partly to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Indonesia’s thermal generation in 2007 was 135twh, or 2.49% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 2.52% of thermal generation. For Indonesia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 26.5%, coal at 24.3% and hydro with a 1.7% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,830mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 37.3% growth over the period.

Indonesia’s 2007 market share of 3.10% is set to fall to 2.98% by 2012. Indonesia is moving ahead slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, which could be operational by 2017. Indonesia is now ranked sixth, just behind Malaysia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, reflecting to its low level of energy import dependence and healthy power consumption growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, and the country may struggle to keep Philippines and Thailand at bay over the longer term. BMI is now forecasting Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 5.83% per annum between 2007 and 2012, with a 2008 forecast of 6.10%. Population is expected to expand from 231.6mn to 245.3mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita both forecast to increase significantly.

The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from 173twh in 2007 to 282twh by the end of the forecast period, leaving a shortfall in generation rising from an estimated 26twh in 2007 to 87twh in 2012, assuming 7.1% annual growth in generating capacity. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation of 90.7%, which is among the highest for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 35.1% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 32.6% in 2007-12. PED growth is set to fall from 25.8% in 2007-12 to 24.0%, representing 63.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 168% in hydro-power use during 2007-18 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 88% between 2007 and 2018. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.

Author:
Mike King

Emisi Antara Roda Dua dan Roda Empat

Saya bingung dengan kalkulasi rumit, terlalu merinci, sehingga (mungkin) lupa melihat dalam frame yang lebih besar.
Sepemahaman saya, kalkulasi atas emisi dihitung dari kinerja mesin, berapa banyak emisi yang dihasilkan untuk setiap liter, setiap menit, setiap unit atau lain sebagainya. Kalau begitu kita coba kalkulasi dengan logika sederhana.

Berapa liter pemakaian Bensin perhari untuk satu unit mobil? kita sebut X
Berapa liter pemakaian Bensin perhari untuk satu unit kendaraan bermotor (kita pakai 2T)? kita sebut Y

Logika realita X > Y
Mana mau orang berdinas mobil diberi ongkos bensin motor

Kemudian berapa banyak ruang/tempat yang diambil oleh satu unit mobil? kita sebut X
dan Berapa banyak ruang/tempat yang diambil oleh satu unit motor? kita sebut Y

Logika realita X > Y

kan bayar parkirnya lebih mahal

Jalanan semakin macet karena penuh dengan antrian mobil berawak minimalis (2 Penumpang cukup), sehingga CO (carbonmonoksida) yang tidak berbau, pastinya semakin banyak di jalanan akibat kinerja mesin yang sedikit meleset.

Lalu dimana logika tentang Emisi diimplementasikan?


[ A.Arifianto ]

Selisih Harga BBM Indonesia

[ Harga BBM RI Mei 2008 ]

Berapa harga Minyak Tanah tanya saya? Rp.4.200,-
Berapa harga Premium? Rp. 4.500,-
Kalau Solar? Rp. 4.300,-
Kalau begitu tolong lihat harga minyak di Amerika/US dibawah ini




Silakan kalkulasi berapa negara merugi jika, pada tahun 2004 di Blueprint PEN (Pengembangan Energi Nasional) dalam satu hari Negara mengimpor 487.000 Barel.

Dengan pertumbuhan iklim investasi dan penjualan produk kendaraan bermotor, bukan hanya kendaraan roda dua, maka secara logika sederhana kebutuhan akan BBM meningkat drastis.

Jikalau begitu bagaimana dengan kebijakan Pemerintah menaikkan harga BBM?

[ A.Arifianto ]

OPEC Pertahankan Produksi

[ ESDM ]
Pertemuan luar biasa OPEC ke 147 di Wina telah terselenggara pada tanggal 1 Februari 2008, pada pertemuan tersebut telah diputuskan untuk mempertahankan tingkat produksinya sebesar 29,67 juta barel per hari, karena dinilai cukup memadai untuk memenuhi permintaan pada kwartal pertama tahun 2008.

''Sehubungan dengan perkembangan perekonomian dunia yang mengalami penurunan, tingkat produksi saat ini cukup memadai untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pada kuartal pertama tahun 2008'', papar siaran pers yang dirilis OPEC dalam website edisi 1 pada bulan Februari 2008. Pada pertemuan tersebut telah disepakati untuk menugaskan Setjen OPEC untuk terus memantau dengan sangat hati-hati dampak penurunan ekonomi terhadap faktor fundamental.

Secara umum pertemuan luar biasa OPEC itu juga telah memberikan penilaian bahwa selama tahun 2007 pasokan minyak mentah cukup baik. Meski terjadi gejolak pasar dalam beberapa saat, secara umum pasar minyak mentah dunia sepanjang tahun 2007 tergolong cukup stabil.

Memasuki tahun 2008, OPEC menghadapi tantangan berat untuk terus menstabilkan pasar. Penurunan ekonomi dunia diprediksikan akan semakin menekan permintaan. Oleh sebab itu dalam lima bulan ke depan, seperti pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya, permintaan rata-rata minyak dunia cenderung melemah.

Pertemuan luar biasa OPEC ke 147 berlangsung di markas OPEC di Wina, Austria yang dihadiri oleh seluruh delegasi anggota OPEC dipimpin oleh Presiden OPEC Dr. Chakib Khelil yang juga Menteri Energi dan Pertambangan Aljazair sekaligus ketua delegasi negaranya.

Pada pertemuan itu, juga dihadiri delegasi tamu dari Equador, yang dipimpin oleh Menteri Pertambangan dan Perminyakan Chiriboga Zambrano. Selain menghadiri pertemuan tersebut, delegasi Equador juga dijamu dengan sebuah diskusi bisnis minyak dunia.

Sehubungan dengan meninggalnya mantan Presiden Indonesia Soeharto, seluruh delegasi pada pertemuan tersebut, menyampaikan ucapan belasungkawa kepada pemerintah serta seluruh masyarakat Indonesia.

Pada pertemuan tersebut juga disampaikan ucapan terima kasih kepada pemerintah Austria atas terselenggaranya acara tersebut dengan lancar.

Indonesia to switch 10 pct petroleum to biofuel

[ reuters ]

By Fitri Wulandari and Naveen Thukral

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to substitute around 10 percent of its fossil fuel transport consumption with biofuel products by 2010, a senior government official said on Monday.

The resource-rich tropical nation has been pushing the use of biofuels made from various resources such as palm oil, sugar cane and cassava to cut the use of costly petroleum products.

The move aims at easing burden of hefty subsidy on petroleum products without raising the price of subsidized fuel sold on domestic market.

"We can't increase prices of subsidized fuel as it will hurt consumers. But we may be able to cut consumption and replace it with biofuel," Evita Legowo, secretary at the National Biofuel Development Team said at the Reuters Global Agriculture and Biofuel Summit.

By 2010, biofuel products are expected to account for 3.8 million kilolitres of total petroleum consumption for transportation at estimated 34.75 million kilolitres.

Indonesia is Asia Pacific's only OPEC member but it is one of the smallest producers in terms of production and relies on fuel imports as it has failed to tap new oilfields fast enough.

The country has to spend billions of dollars on oil subsidies and importing oil products.

For that, the government plans to increase bioethanol blend in gasoline to 5 percent by 2010 from 3 percent, using cassava and cane molasses--thick syrup produced from sugar cane during the sugar extraction process--as feedstock, she said.

Production capacity for bioethanol using both cassava and cane molasses is expected to reach 3.77 million kilolitres per year, from 135,000 kilolitres per year by the end of December 2007, data from the biofuel team showed.

As for biodiesel, Legowo said the government may keep the biodiesel blend in diesel oil at 2.5 percent due to soaring palm oil prices while trying to boost output of jatropha, a non-edible oil that grows in arid land and needs little care.

"Biodiesel blend will stay at 2.5 percent ... maybe less because we are still waiting for jatropha that we planted last year," Legowo said.

Indonesian state-owned oil firm Pertamina which retails biodiesel at home, has cut the biodiesel blend in diesel fuel to 2.5 percent as rising palm oil prices and lack of incentives cut margins.

Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit a record on Monday with the benchmark March contract KPOH8 ending at 3,414 ringgit a tonne after hitting 3,420 ringgit, surpassing a high of 3,280 ringgit reached on Friday.

Palm oil prices, up nearly 12 percent since the start of the year, were also supported by prospects of Malaysia introducing palm oil-blended diesel at home this year and Indonesia's plans to double biodiesel production.

There are also plans for 12 special biofuel zones by 2010 where investors could develop an integrated biofuel industry, if approved by the government, said Legowo.

Indonesia is developing other raw materials to ensure feedstock supplies for biodiesel and biofuel production. It plans to plant 5.25 million hectares of unused land with palm oil, jatropha, sugar cane and cassava by 2010.

By that time, biofuel products will account for 2 percent of the country's total energy mix of 5.29 million kilolitres.

(Editing by Peter Blackburn)

Indonesian fuel subsidy soars amid oil price rise

[ ChinaView ]

JAKARTA, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- The fuel subsidy in the Indonesian state budget is estimated to hit 90 trillion rupiah this year (about 9.8 billion U.S. dollars) against the initial projection of 55 trillion (6 billion dollars) due to soaring oil prices, an official said Monday.

Indonesia must cope with the global oil shocks by either increasing domestic fuel prices or launching energy conservation campaign.

"But the government would not go to the first option (price hike) because of its potential massive social effects, so we choose the second option," Minister of Energy and Mineral resources Purnomo Yusgiantoro said in a seminar on renewable energy development here.

Purnomo said the average Indonesian crude oil price already hit72 dollars per barrel, far above the projected 60 dollars per barrel in the state budget.

The government allocates subsidies for transport fuel products but allows market pricing for high-octane fuel products, fuel for industrial uses and for export sales.

The subsidized gasoline, for instance, sells at a mere 4,500 rupiah (49 cents) a liter.

Subsidized fuel consumption in Southeast Asia's only OPEC member is predicted to reach 38.2 million kiloliters this year, exceeding the government's quota of 36.1 million kiloliters.

In nine months to September, fuel consumption already reached 28.5 million kiloliters, comprising gasoline 13.09 million kiloliters, diesel fuel 8.01 million kiloliters and kerosene 7.4 million kiloliters, according to data from the Oil and Gas Executive Body (BP Migas).

Oilex drilling at Indonesian West Kampar indicates potential oil zones

[ AFX News Limited ]

10.23.07, 4:10 AM ET

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oilex Ltd said drilling at Indonesia's West Kampar Pendalian-3 well has indicated potential oil zones at depths similar to the nearby Pendalian-1 well.

The company said once the logging program is complete, the well will be cased and a comprehensive 14 day multi-zone testing program will be undertaken.

Oilex has a 45 pct participating interest in the West Kampar production sharing contract, while Sumatera Persada Energy holds the remaining 55 pct stake.

TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com